Who Wins? You Do (Part 1)

I’m a gadget guy to be sure and anyone who knows me understands (or at least accepts) my obsession and fanaticism when it comes to modern electronics and especially ones geared towards computing.  I, unlike many I know, love to see change when it comes to modern conveniences.  I have recently, within the last year or so, begun to follow the mobile phone market as I see it as the next big “life changer”.  I sincerely believe that the so called  “Netbook” is an interim device that will fill a very narrow market-space until the mobile smartphone market has fully matured.

I think the “Netbook” is a great idea but in my opinion is too much like a laptop computer in that its formfactor is still too big to fit in a purse or a pocket therefore offers no major advantage to its user other than weight.  Also, given the fact that traditional laptops are available in nearly netbook size at sometimes lower prices any advantage gained in formfactor becomes negligible.  One must also look at the hardware that is being used in these so called “Netbooks”.  They are either sticking traditional low end Intel/AMD processors in them or opting for technology such as the “Atom” processor or better yet using ARM processors like they have been integrating into smartphones for some time now.  On the lower end of the spectrum where they’ve opted for very low power consuming processors the end user will suffer when trying to do anything outside of the realm of browsing the web or reading email.  The first time they start to try manipulating photos or media they will feel the pinch.  On the high end, users will suffer when it comes to battery life and the advantage in speed will be lost on the small screens.  Still, I think at the time they became mainstream they filled a gap in formfactor and also overcame the limitations of the older generations of smartphones.  The sub-compact laptop idea is not a new one as anyone who has been to a CES or Comdex (now defunct) can tell you.  It failed in the past and it will ultimately fail this time because the market will not sustain such a niche device.  I just cant see any long term success in the “Netbook”.  Why?  Well the smartphone of course.  It will not be very long before you can and will do more with your smartphone device.

Apple, Inc.  is both loved and hated by the technology community.  On one hand they are without question among the most innovative companies out there when it comes to hardware and software design.  They also have one of the smartest men alive running the company.  Steve Jobs and Apple are geniuses when it comes to mass market appeal and innovative designs.  The Apple iPhone is perhaps one of the most prolific devices to ever hit store shelves and despite my own biases I must acknowledge its impact on the smartphone market.  Without this phone, I may not have even thought to write this article.  Now, on the other hand, Apple has a very tight grip on anything and everything that is branded with their famous bitten apple trademark.  They are not open-source friendly and take major offense at anyone attempting to replicate, integrate or otherwise alter their software or hardware.  Unless they specifically control the process they do not want you messin’ with their stuff.  This has caused some animosity among the open-source community.  Regardless though, the point of this article is about the impact smartphones have and will continue to have on us now and into the future.  The iPhone in my opinion has changed everything and opened the door to our cell phone future.  For that I thank Apple and I hope to continue to see even more innovation from them in this space.

So what did Apple do right and why do I credit them for the explosion of smartphone technology?  Ok, well I realize that smartphones have been around for a very long time.  I owned some of them including the original Palm Treo and a Samsung phone using Windows Mobile platform.  While those experiences were handy at the time I never could fully integrate either of them into my day to day life.  They required synchronizations that were at times cumbersome and often didn’t work.  The applications for them were scarce at best so your primary reason for having them was to gain access to your calendar and email.  Lets not leave out the Blackberry who in my opinion were extremely innovative and masterful in penetrating the business market.  They improved this experience by getting your email to you automatically without a sync process and even developed a backend server to aid in the data distribution.  Again though, Blackberry fell short in terms of application development and mass market penetration.  The smartphone up to recently was seen as a business persons device period.  That is until Apple shook the world.  In January of 2007 Apple announced the iPhone and what was once the domain of the suit and tie had now come to the masses.  This one device with its simple and elegant design enabled anyone to access their email, calendars, and documents while at the same time providing a computing platform that allowed for thousands of diverse applications to be developed and used.  In fact this application development model is the key element in the proliferation of smartphones as we know them today.  When Apple’s App Store was born so too was the true smartphone.

As Apple went on to effectively dominate the smartphone market for the next two years a chain of events was set into motion that would revolutionize our perceptions of the cell phone.  In true capitalistic form, competition would rise, the cell phone of old would transform and before you know it we’ll all be carrying around our desktop computers in our pocket!  Now, while I credit Apple for changing the landscape I do not believe that in the end they will survive to remain the most dominant.  That opinion I will save for next time but my point in writing this is that we as consumers are the true winners in this whole battle for cell phone supremacy.  We will now sit back and enjoy the fruits of the cell phone manufacturing industry as they battle it out. Who wins? You do with cheaper, faster, more innovative ideas and devices.  You cannot lose!

In Part 2, I will explore the different platforms available today and tomorrow and whom I feel will dominate the next several years.